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Summary for Hurricane DOLORES (EP5/EP052015)
2015-07-16 04:34:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...EYE OF MAJOR HURRICANE DOLORES VERY NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND... As of 9:00 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 the center of DOLORES was located near 19.1, -110.9 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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Hurricane DOLORES Public Advisory Number 19
2015-07-16 04:34:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 160234 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE DOLORES ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 900 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015 ...EYE OF MAJOR HURRICANE DOLORES VERY NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 110.9W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SW OF SOCORRO ISLAND MEXICO ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of the large eye of Hurricane Dolores was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 110.9 West. Dolores is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. A turn toward the west is forecast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Dolores is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength are possible through Thursday, but weakening is forecast to begin Thursday night or Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). An automated station on Socorro Island reported a sustained wind of 80 mph (128 km/h) with a gust to 114 mph (183 km/h) a couple of hours ago. The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches), partially based on an observed pressure of 970 mb at Socorro Island, which was measured outside of the eye. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Dolores are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and the southern coast of the Baja California peninsula. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane DOLORES Forecast Advisory Number 19
2015-07-16 04:33:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 16 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 160233 TCMEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 0300 UTC THU JUL 16 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 110.9W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......140NE 150SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 270SW 290NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 110.9W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 110.7W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.6N 111.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 20.1N 113.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.5N 114.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 20.9N 116.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.0N 119.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 26.2N 122.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 29.0N 124.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 110.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane DOLORES Graphics
2015-07-15 22:34:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 15 Jul 2015 20:34:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 15 Jul 2015 20:33:46 GMT
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Hurricane DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 18
2015-07-15 22:33:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 152033 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 300 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015 Convective tops have been warming very gradually around Dolores's eye since this morning. Satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB are T5.5/6.0, and given the infrared satellite trends, the initial intensity is lowered slightly to 110 kt. Dolores is moving over very warm 29-30 degrees Celsius water, but it will soon be traversing a tight SST gradient once it passes Socorro Island. Thus, the hurricane only has a small window to re-intensify before reaching colder water. Gradual weakening is now forecast during the next 24 hours, followed by faster weakening for the remainder of the forecast period. This forecast is very close to a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models, especially early in the forecast period, and is lower than the previous forecasts since Dolores has not restrengthened. Dolores is located to the southwest of a mid-level anticyclone, and the initial motion estimate is 290/5 kt. A ridge is expected to build westward from the anticyclone during the next couple of days, which should force Dolores to turn westward by 48 hours. After that time, there remains a notable spread in the track guidance, with the ECMWF, UKMET, and GFDL showing a sharper turn toward the north and the GFS and HWRF keeping the cyclone farther south. The updated NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly to the right and lies about midway between the previous forecast and the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 18.7N 110.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 19.2N 111.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 19.7N 112.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 20.1N 114.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 20.3N 116.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 21.9N 119.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 24.5N 122.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 28.0N 124.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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