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Summary for Hurricane DOLORES (EP5/EP052015)
2015-07-15 22:33:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...EYE OF DOLORES APPROACHING SOCORRO ISLAND... As of 3:00 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 the center of DOLORES was located near 18.7, -110.6 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 952 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
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Hurricane DOLORES Public Advisory Number 18
2015-07-15 22:33:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 152033 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE DOLORES ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 300 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015 ...EYE OF DOLORES APPROACHING SOCORRO ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 110.6W ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dolores was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 110.6 West. Dolores is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday night. A turn toward the west is forecast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Dolores is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible through Thursday, but weakening is forecast Thursday night and Friday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). An automated station on Socorro Island recently reported a wind gust of 59 mph (96 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Dolores are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and the southern coast of the Baja California peninsula. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane DOLORES Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2015-07-15 22:33:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 15 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 152033 PWSEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 2100 UTC WED JUL 15 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLORES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN JOSE CABO 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LA PAZ 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA SOCORRO 50 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA SOCORRO 64 84 2(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) ISLA CLARION 34 2 21(23) 23(46) 7(53) 2(55) X(55) X(55) ISLA CLARION 50 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane DOLORES Forecast Advisory Number 18
2015-07-15 22:32:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 15 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 152032 TCMEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 2100 UTC WED JUL 15 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 110.6W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......140NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 210SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 110.6W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 110.3W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.2N 111.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.7N 112.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 20.1N 114.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.3N 116.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 21.9N 119.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 24.5N 122.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 28.0N 124.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 110.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane DOLORES Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2015-07-15 16:32:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 15 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 151432 PWSEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 1500 UTC WED JUL 15 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLORES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA SOCORRO 50 90 5(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) ISLA SOCORRO 64 68 11(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) ISLA CLARION 34 1 10(11) 33(44) 13(57) 4(61) X(61) X(61) ISLA CLARION 50 X 1( 1) 9(10) 9(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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